LHV Pensionifond Aktiivne III

October 2024: Gold drives positive returns in the stock portfolio

Kristo Oidermaa and Romet Enok, Fund Managers

The US S&P 500 index ended October with a return of −1% in dollar terms, while the European Euro Stoxx 50 index posted −3.3% in euro terms. The emerging markets index declined by 4.4% in dollar terms over the month, driven primarily by China, where the index fell by 6% in dollars. The wave of optimism that emerged in China in September has somewhat diminished. Meanwhile, the OMX Baltic Benchmark index rose by 3.5% over the month.

In October, we added the Finnish energy company Fortum to our funds, reduced our gold holdings and sold off the Finnish retail company Kesko from L and Active III. The top performers in the stock portfolio were our gold-related positions, which gained between 4.5% and 7.5%, and our European banking index fund, which increased by 3.5% in October.
On the downside, our investments in energy metals dropped by 7% to 9% and our Chinese position in Alibaba declined by around 12%. We continue to see good opportunities in the commodity sector, given the protection it provides in a challenging geopolitical environment, as well as in Scandinavian companies due to their high quality and strong competitiveness. We have also increased our exposure to US stocks in recent months and intend to increase this exposure in the future.

October was a particularly active month for the EfTEN Real Estate Fund, which acquired a logistics centre and signed a contract to purchase a production and storage facility. The logistics centre in Tallinn has ELP Logistics OÜ as the anchor tenant, with a lease commitment extending for at least ten years. The production and storage facility under development in Harku municipality is being built for ICONFIT, the Baltic region’s leading producer of sports, diet and health foods. ICONFIT has also signed a long-term lease agreement with the fund, with a term of ten years.

The most significant change in the bond portfolio was the liquidation of our position in Volkswagen securities. This instrument, slightly more complex than standard bonds, had been in our fund for nearly a year and a half and provided returns more in line with the long-term average of stock markets. For new investments, we are currently looking outside the global exchanges and our next addition is likely to be a direct investment.

September 2024: The largest indices ended the month positively

Kristo Oidermaa and Romet Enok, Fund Managers

The beginning of September was quite volatile, just as the beginning of August was; nonetheless, the major indices ended the month positively. The US S&P 500 index was up 2% in dollars and the European Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.9% in euros. The emerging markets index was up as much as 6.4% in dollars during September. This was mainly due to China, whose index gained 23.5% in dollars as the market responded to the country’s long-awaited major government spending aimed at stimulating the economy. The Baltic OMX Baltic Benchmark index saw little change, ending the month down 0.8%.

In September, we sold five investments from the stock portfolio: Siemens Healthineers, Roche Holding, GN Store Nord, Huhtamäki and Valmet. We also halved our position in Agnico Eagle Mines; however, we increased our energy position by buying more in Noble Corp and Valaris.

During the month, our energy metal positions, physical gold and Alibaba delivered the best results, reflecting more positive sentiments in the market due to the announcement that the Chinese government would increase its support to its economy. Investments in the energy sector and gold mining enterprise Barrick Gold Corp. were the biggest drags on the fund’s results in September.

We still see good opportunities in the commodity sector thanks to the protection the sector offers to the investor in a difficult geopolitical environment, as well as in Nordic companies thanks to their guaranteed quality and competitiveness. September was a successful month for the fund’s bond portfolio thanks to our large investment in Eesti Energia securities. In addition to the annual interest rate of 7.875%, the price of the bonds has gone up by approximately 5% since our purchase this July.

We will continue to make bond investments only if their risk and return prospects are comparable to or better than equity investments.

August 2024: August brought good buying opportunities

Kristo Oidermaa and Romet Enok, Fund Managers

August was quite volatile for the markets. After falling earlier in the month, the S&P 500 index recovered to end the month up 2.3% in dollars. The European Euro Stoxx 50 ended August up 1.8% in euros. The emerging market index rose 1.4% in dollars during the month, with China, the biggest contributor to that rise, up 1%. The OMX Baltic Benchmark index fell by approximately 2.7% in euros during the month.

The market correction at the beginning of the month brought us good buying opportunities. Among the new investments added to the portfolio were the Swedish companies Atlas Copco, Saab, Indutrade and Nibe Industrier. We also bought positions in United Rentals, an American construction equipment rental company, and in American Industrial Renaissance ETF. In addition, we increased our holdings in the Finnish company Metso and in VanEck Oil Services ETF.

The biggest contributors to the fund’s equity portfolio last month were gold positions, which rose 4%–8%, the European banks index, which rose 3.4%, and the air source heat pump manufacturer Nibe Industrier, which rose about 19%. The poorest performers were investments related to energy and silver, which fell by 15%–20% and 11%, respectively. Due to structural undersupply and the protection it offers in an uncertain geopolitical environment, we continue to see good opportunities in the commodity sector.

In August, LHV pension funds sold a stake in the forest fund Birdeye Timber Fund 1 for 8.4 million euros. The duration of the investment was ten years, during which period we contributed to the development of Estonian forests and the management of the forest portfolio. Forest land as an asset class is based on real property and is less volatile than traditional investments such as stocks and bonds.

Our major investment this summer – Eesti Energia subordinated bonds – has started with strong results, bringing the fund a return of approximately 3% by the end of August. A significant part of the return was due to the overall decline in interest rates in Europe (reminder: after interest rates are lowered, the prices of most bonds rise automatically). If the company’s results improve, the price of the bonds could increase further. To top it off, the fund accumulates interest at the rate of 7.875% per year in the meantime.

July 2024: We made a new major investment

Kristo Oidermaa and Romet Enok, Fund Managers

July was a rather volatile month on the stock markets. While the S&P 500 index, which largely represents technology stocks, dipped during the month and ended with a 1.1% return in dollar terms, the Dow Jones index, which reflects more established industrial-sector companies, performed much better, with a monthly return of 4.4%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 index saw little change in July, with its value decreasing by 0.3% in euro terms. The emerging markets index also remained largely unchanged. The index was negatively impacted by China, which declined by 2.2% in dollar terms, but positively influenced by India and Indonesia, which rose by 3.9% and 3.5%, respectively. The OMX Baltic Benchmark index increased by approximately 1% in euro terms over the month.

The bond portfolio has a new major investment as we subscribed to Eesti Energia’s new bonds. These bonds offer an annual interest rate of 7.875%, and Eesti Energia is expected to repay the loan in approximately five years. In addition to bank loans, the energy provider raised funds through bonds to complete its extensive investment plan. Capital-intensive construction projects are underway in the renewable energy, network services and fuel business sectors. The bond is traded on the international market, providing an additional opportunity to profit from potential price increases.

On the other hand, funds were released from the bond portfolio when the local real estate fund Baltic Horizon made the final repayment on the shorter-term portion of its bond. In addition to the nearly 12% annual interest rate, early redemption fees were added to the shorter-term repayments.